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San Viator vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Viator
San Viator
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
11/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator26%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Alavés III47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Viator
1.00
Deportivo Alavés III
1.44

Deportivo Alavés III creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

San Viator
0.59
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

San Viator
1.94
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Viator or draw
53%
San Viator or Deportivo Alavés III
73%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
74%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+
10%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals
63%
San Viator 2+ goals
26%
San Viator 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)
36%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Viator scores more
26%
level
27%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
47%

Deportivo Alavés III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: San Viator 1–0 Deportivo Alavés III

San Viator beat Deportivo Alavés III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Campo San Viator in Vitoria-Gasteiz.