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San Viator vs Beasain — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Viator
San Viator
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Beasain
Beasain
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator19%
×Draw25%
Beasain56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Viator
0.80
Beasain
1.57

Beasain creates 96% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

San Viator
0.59
Beasain
1.20

allows per match

San Viator
1.94
Beasain
1.02

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par
Beasain+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Beasain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Viator or draw
44%
San Viator or Beasain
75%
Draw or Beasain
81%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+
6%
Beasain wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals
55%
San Viator 2+ goals
19%
San Viator 3+ goals
5%
Beasain 1+ goals
79%
Beasain 2+ goals
46%
Beasain 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)
26%
Beasain (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Beasain away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Beasain defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.80

Beasain attack 1.20 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Viator scores more
19%
level
25%
Beasain scores more
56%

Beasain at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Viator vs Beasain

Beasain beat San Viator 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Campo San Viator in Vitoria-Gasteiz.