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San Viator vs Basconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Viator
San Viator
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Basconia
Basconia
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator17%
×Draw24%
Basconia59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Viator
0.74
Basconia
1.64

Basconia creates 122% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

creates per match

San Viator
0.59
Basconia
1.34

allows per match

San Viator
1.94
Basconia
0.89

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par
Basconia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Basconia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Viator or draw
41%
San Viator or Basconia
76%
Draw or Basconia
83%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+
5%
Basconia wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals
52%
San Viator 2+ goals
17%
San Viator 3+ goals
4%
Basconia 1+ goals
81%
Basconia 2+ goals
49%
Basconia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)
22%
Basconia (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Basconia away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Basconia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Basconia attack 1.34 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

San Viator scores more
17%
level
24%
Basconia scores more
59%

Basconia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: San Viator 1–2 Basconia

Basconia beat San Viator 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo San Viator in Vitoria-Gasteiz.