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San Viator vs Aretxabaleta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Viator
San Viator
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
9/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Estadio Ariznabarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator29%
×Draw25%
Aretxabaleta46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Viator
1.15
Aretxabaleta
1.52

Aretxabaleta creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

San Viator
0.59
Aretxabaleta
1.09

allows per match

San Viator
1.94
Aretxabaleta
1.71

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par
Aretxabaleta+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Aretxabaleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Viator or draw
54%
San Viator or Aretxabaleta
75%
Draw or Aretxabaleta
71%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+
11%
Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals
68%
San Viator 2+ goals
32%
San Viator 3+ goals
11%
Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
78%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
45%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)
39%
Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Aretxabaleta away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aretxabaleta attack 1.09 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Viator scores more
29%
level
25%
Aretxabaleta scores more
46%

Aretxabaleta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aretxabaleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Viator vs Aretxabaleta

San Viator and Aretxabaleta drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ariznabarra in Vitoria-Gasteiz.