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San Telmo vs Temperley — Primera Nacional 2026

San Telmo
San Telmo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Temperley
Temperley
4/5/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 9Estadio Osvaldo Baletto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

San Telmo40%
×Draw31%
Temperley29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Telmo
1.10
Temperley
0.89

San Telmo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 129 away

creates per match

San Telmo
1.20
Temperley
0.78

allows per match

San Telmo
1.00
Temperley
1.01

finishing

San Telmo+0.00on par
Temperley+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Telmo ↓

Temperley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Telmo or draw
71%
San Telmo or Temperley
69%
Draw or Temperley
60%

Winning margin

San Telmo wins by 2+
16%
Temperley wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Telmo 1+ goals
67%
San Telmo 2+ goals
30%
San Telmo 3+ goals
10%
Temperley 1+ goals
59%
Temperley 2+ goals
22%
Temperley 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Telmo (draw refunded)
58%
Temperley (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Telmo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 102 matches

Temperley away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.01 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Telmo attack 1.20 + Temperley defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Temperley attack 0.78 + San Telmo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Telmo scores more
40%
level
31%
Temperley scores more
29%

San Telmo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Telmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Telmo 0–3 Temperley

Temperley beat San Telmo 3-0 in Primera Nacional on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Osvaldo Baletto in Dock Sud.