San Telmo 4–1 Almagro: Result & Stats

San Telmo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Almagro

3/23/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 8Estadio Dr. Osvaldo Francisco Baletto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

San Telmo45%

×Draw29%

Almagro26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San TelmoExpected goals in this matchAlmagro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.88

San Telmo

1.24

Almagro

0.88

San Telmo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 127 away

1.20

creates per match

0.76

1.00

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

San Telmo

1.20

Almagro

0.76

allows per match

San Telmo

1.00

Almagro

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Telmo+0.00on par

Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Telmo ↓

Almagro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

San Telmo or draw

74%

San Telmo or Almagro

71%

Draw or Almagro

55%

Winning margin

San Telmo wins by 2+

20%

Almagro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

San Telmo 1+ goals

71%

San Telmo 2+ goals

35%

San Telmo 3+ goals

13%

Almagro 1+ goals

59%

Almagro 2+ goals

22%

Almagro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Telmo (draw refunded)

63%

Almagro (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Telmo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 102 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Telmo attack 1.20 + Almagro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Almagro attack 0.76 + San Telmo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Telmo scores more

45%

level

29%

Almagro scores more

26%

San Telmo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Telmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff