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San Roque Lepe vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

San Roque Lepe40%
×Draw29%
Xerez Deportivo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Roque Lepe
1.20
Xerez Deportivo
1.04

San Roque Lepe creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 43 away

creates per match

San Roque Lepe
1.34
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

San Roque Lepe
0.76
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Roque Lepe ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Roque Lepe or draw
68%
San Roque Lepe or Xerez Deportivo
71%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
60%

Winning margin

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
17%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
70%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
34%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
12%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
28%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
56%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Roque Lepe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Roque Lepe attack 1.34 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + San Roque Lepe defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Roque Lepe scores more
40%
level
29%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
32%

San Roque Lepe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Roque Lepe vs Xerez Deportivo

San Roque Lepe beat Xerez Deportivo 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe in Lepe.