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San Roque Lepe vs Rota — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rota
Rota
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 28Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Roque Lepe59%
×Draw25%
Rota17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Roque Lepe
1.61
Rota
0.72

San Roque Lepe creates 124% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 57 away

creates per match

San Roque Lepe
1.34
Rota
0.67

allows per match

San Roque Lepe
0.76
Rota
1.89

finishing

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par
Rota+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Roque Lepe ↓

Rota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Roque Lepe or draw
83%
San Roque Lepe or Rota
75%
Draw or Rota
41%

Winning margin

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
32%
Rota wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
80%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
48%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
22%
Rota 1+ goals
51%
Rota 2+ goals
16%
Rota 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
78%
Rota (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Roque Lepe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Rota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Roque Lepe attack 1.34 + Rota defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rota attack 0.67 + San Roque Lepe defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

San Roque Lepe scores more
59%
level
25%
Rota scores more
17%

San Roque Lepe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: San Roque Lepe 1–0 Rota

San Roque Lepe beat Rota 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe in Lepe.