Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Roque Lepe vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
David Rodríguez 79'
Pablo Ortíz 44'
Galleti 18'
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

San Roque Lepe53%
×Draw26%
La Palma21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Roque Lepe
1.50
La Palma
0.82

San Roque Lepe creates 83% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 48 away

creates per match

San Roque Lepe
1.34
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

San Roque Lepe
0.76
La Palma
1.67

finishing

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Roque Lepe ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Roque Lepe or draw
79%
San Roque Lepe or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
47%

Winning margin

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
27%
La Palma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
78%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
44%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
19%
La Palma 1+ goals
56%
La Palma 2+ goals
20%
La Palma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
72%
La Palma (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Roque Lepe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Roque Lepe attack 1.34 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

La Palma attack 0.88 + San Roque Lepe defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

San Roque Lepe scores more
53%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
21%

San Roque Lepe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Galleti
39'
Nané García← Juanjo Mateos
39'
Juan Carlos Camacho← Adri González
44'
Pablo Ortíz
46'
Segura← Nené
46'
Alberto Sánchez← Pirri
56'
Alvarito← Manu Calle
61'
Mario de Iraola← Manu Cruzado
73'
José Arias← Galleti
77'
David Rodríguez← Pablo Ortíz
79'
David Rodríguez
89'
Juan Marí← Fernandito
San
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Diego Domínguez
Domínguez
Carlos Martínez
Martínez
Pirri
▼
Pirri
Nené
▼
Nené
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Manu Calle
▼
Calle
Paco
Paco
Manu Cruzado
▼
Cruzado
Galleti
⚽
▼
Galleti
Mazin
Mazin
David Robador
Robador
Ubay Luzardo
Luzardo
Juanjo Mateos
▼
Mateos
Antonio López
López
J. Rydstrand
Rydstrand
Nacho Abeledo
Abeledo
Pablo Ortíz
⚽
▼
Ortíz
Adri González
▼
González
Fran Medina
Medina
Fernandito
▼
Fernandit
Tommy Montenegro
Montenegr
Antonio
Manager: Antonio
39'▲Nané García←▼Juanjo Mateos
39'▲Juan Carlos Camacho←▼Adri González
77'▲David Rodríguez←▼Pablo Ortíz
89'▲Juan Marí←▼Fernandito

San Roque Lepe substitutes

GarcíaCamachoRodríguezMarí
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
46'▲Segura←▼Nené
46'▲Alberto Sánchez←▼Pirri
56'▲Alvarito←▼Manu Calle
61'▲Mario de Iraola←▼Manu Cruzado
73'▲José Arias←▼Galleti

La Palma substitutes

SeguraSánchezAlvaritoIraolaArias

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: San Roque Lepe 2–1 La Palma

San Roque Lepe beat La Palma 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 8, 2020.

Goals: Galleti (18'), Pablo Ortíz (44'), David Rodríguez (79').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe in Lepe.