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San Roque Lepe vs Antoniano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Antoniano
Antoniano
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Roque Lepe43%
×Draw30%
Antoniano27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Roque Lepe
1.19
Antoniano
0.89

San Roque Lepe creates 34% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 57 away

creates per match

San Roque Lepe
1.34
Antoniano
1.02

allows per match

San Roque Lepe
0.76
Antoniano
1.04

finishing

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par
Antoniano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Roque Lepe ↓

Antoniano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Roque Lepe or draw
73%
San Roque Lepe or Antoniano
70%
Draw or Antoniano
57%

Winning margin

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
19%
Antoniano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
70%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
33%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
12%
Antoniano 1+ goals
59%
Antoniano 2+ goals
22%
Antoniano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
61%
Antoniano (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Roque Lepe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Antoniano away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Roque Lepe attack 1.34 + Antoniano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Antoniano attack 1.02 + San Roque Lepe defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Roque Lepe scores more
43%
level
30%
Antoniano scores more
27%

San Roque Lepe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Roque Lepe vs Antoniano

Antoniano beat San Roque Lepe 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe in Lepe.