San Rafael 0–0 Binissalem: Result & Stats

San Rafael

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Binissalem

3/19/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 35Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Rafael48%

×Draw25%

Binissalem27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San RafaelExpected goals in this matchBinissalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.11

San Rafael

1.58

Binissalem

1.11

San Rafael creates 42% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 113 away

1.85

creates per match

0.92

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

San Rafael

1.85

Binissalem

0.92

allows per match

San Rafael

1.30

Binissalem

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par

Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Binissalem →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw

73%

San Rafael or Binissalem

75%

Draw or Binissalem

52%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+

25%

Binissalem wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals

79%

San Rafael 2+ goals

47%

San Rafael 3+ goals

21%

Binissalem 1+ goals

67%

Binissalem 2+ goals

30%

Binissalem 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)

64%

Binissalem (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Binissalem attack 0.92 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Rafael scores more

48%

level

25%

Binissalem scores more

27%

San Rafael at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff