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San-Pédro vs Racing d'Abidjan — Ligue 1 2019

San-Pédro
San-Pédro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing d'Abidjan
Racing d'Abidjan
5/26/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Auguste Denise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

San-Pédro40%
×Draw29%
Racing d'Abidjan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San-Pédro
1.21
Racing d'Abidjan
1.02

San-Pédro creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 89 away

creates per match

San-Pédro
1.34
Racing d'Abidjan
1.18

allows per match

San-Pédro
0.87
Racing d'Abidjan
1.08

finishing

San-Pédro+0.00on par
Racing d'Abidjan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San-Pédro ↓

Racing d'Abidjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San-Pédro or draw
69%
San-Pédro or Racing d'Abidjan
71%
Draw or Racing d'Abidjan
60%

Winning margin

San-Pédro wins by 2+
17%
Racing d'Abidjan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San-Pédro 1+ goals
70%
San-Pédro 2+ goals
34%
San-Pédro 3+ goals
12%
Racing d'Abidjan 1+ goals
64%
Racing d'Abidjan 2+ goals
27%
Racing d'Abidjan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San-Pédro (draw refunded)
57%
Racing d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San-Pédro at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.87 · 93 matches

Racing d'Abidjan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San-Pédro attack 1.34 + Racing d'Abidjan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Racing d'Abidjan attack 1.18 + San-Pédro defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San-Pédro scores more
40%
level
29%
Racing d'Abidjan scores more
31%

San-Pédro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San-Pédro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San-Pédro vs Racing d'Abidjan

San-Pédro and Racing d'Abidjan drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Auguste Denise in San Pédro.