San Nicolaas 1–2 Estudiantes: Result & Stats

San Nicolaas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Estudiantes

3/17/2026

Division di Honor · Relegation - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

San Nicolaas55%

×Draw17%

Estudiantes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San NicolaasExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

2.20

San Nicolaas

3.10

Estudiantes

2.20

San Nicolaas creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

1.00

3.40

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

San Nicolaas

2.20

Estudiantes

1.00

allows per match

San Nicolaas

3.40

Estudiantes

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Nicolaas+0.00on par

Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Nicolaas ↓

Estudiantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

San Nicolaas or draw

73%

San Nicolaas or Estudiantes

83%

Draw or Estudiantes

45%

Winning margin

San Nicolaas wins by 2+

37%

Estudiantes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

San Nicolaas 1+ goals

95%

San Nicolaas 2+ goals

81%

San Nicolaas 3+ goals

58%

Estudiantes 1+ goals

89%

Estudiantes 2+ goals

64%

Estudiantes 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

San Nicolaas (draw refunded)

67%

Estudiantes (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Nicolaas at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Estudiantes away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Nicolaas attack 2.20 + Estudiantes defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Estudiantes attack 1.00 + San Nicolaas defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

San Nicolaas scores more

55%

level

17%

Estudiantes scores more

27%

San Nicolaas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "San Nicolaas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff