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San Nicolaas vs Caravel — Division di Honor 2019

San Nicolaas
San Nicolaas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Caravel
Caravel
5/24/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

San Nicolaas39%
×Draw19%
Caravel41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Nicolaas
2.42
Caravel
2.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

creates per match

San Nicolaas
2.20
Caravel
1.57

allows per match

San Nicolaas
3.40
Caravel
2.64

finishing

San Nicolaas+0.00on par
Caravel+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Nicolaas ↓

Caravel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

San Nicolaas or draw
59%
San Nicolaas or Caravel
81%
Draw or Caravel
61%

Winning margin

San Nicolaas wins by 2+
23%
Caravel wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

San Nicolaas 1+ goals
91%
San Nicolaas 2+ goals
69%
San Nicolaas 3+ goals
43%
Caravel 1+ goals
92%
Caravel 2+ goals
70%
Caravel 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

San Nicolaas (draw refunded)
49%
Caravel (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Nicolaas at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Caravel away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Nicolaas attack 2.20 + Caravel defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.42

Caravel attack 1.57 + San Nicolaas defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Nicolaas scores more
39%
level
19%
Caravel scores more
41%

Caravel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Caravel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: San Nicolaas 2–2 Caravel

San Nicolaas and Caravel drew 2-2 in Division di Honor on May 24, 2026.