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San Miguel vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Miguel
San Miguel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
3/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel50%
×Draw24%
Unión Viera26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Miguel
1.73
Unión Viera
1.17

San Miguel creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

creates per match

San Miguel
1.53
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

San Miguel
1.47
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw
74%
San Miguel or Unión Viera
76%
Draw or Unión Viera
50%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+
27%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals
82%
San Miguel 2+ goals
52%
San Miguel 3+ goals
25%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
69%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
33%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)
66%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.53 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + San Miguel defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Miguel scores more
50%
level
24%
Unión Viera scores more
26%

San Miguel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Miguel vs Unión Viera

Unión Viera beat San Miguel 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.