San Miguel 2–1 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

San Miguel

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Santa Úrsula

12/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel45%

×Draw25%

Santa Úrsula30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.19

San Miguel

1.52

Santa Úrsula

1.19

San Miguel creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

1.53

creates per match

0.90

1.47

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

San Miguel

1.53

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

San Miguel

1.47

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

70%

San Miguel or Santa Úrsula

75%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

55%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

22%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

78%

San Miguel 2+ goals

45%

San Miguel 3+ goals

20%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

70%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

33%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

60%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.53 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + San Miguel defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Miguel scores more

45%

level

25%

Santa Úrsula scores more

30%

San Miguel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Miguel vs Santa Úrsula

San Miguel beat Santa Úrsula 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

San Miguel vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Miguel vs Santa Úrsula