San Miguel vs San Telmo — Primera B Metropolitana 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 40+ matches
San Miguel33%
San Telmo34%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 89 home / 40 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under72
- Over28
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Miguel ↓
Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Miguel at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.76 · 89 matches
San Telmo away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Miguel attack 0.85 + San Telmo defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91
San Telmo attack 1.10 + San Miguel defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 34%?"
San Telmo at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 34% does not mean "San Telmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Deportivo Armenio
ColegialesSan Miguel
Ituzaingó
Defensores Unidos
Villa San Carlos
Acassuso
Canuelas
Deportivo Merlo
Talleres Remedios
Comunicaciones
Los Andes
UAI Urquiza
Dock Sud
Fénix
Argentino Quilmes
JJ UrquizaComunicacionesItuzaingóColegialesVilla San CarlosCanuelasFénixDefensores UnidosDeportivo ArmenioTalleres RemediosArgentino QuilmesJJ UrquizaDock SudAcassusoDeportivo MerloLos AndesUAI UrquizaSan MiguelIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Miguel host San Telmo on Saturday, 25 April 2020 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera B Metropolitana 2018/2019 season.
Preview: San Miguel host San Telmo
April 25, 2020: San Miguel take on San Telmo in Primera B Metropolitana. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
San Miguel host San Telmo at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.