San Miguel 1–1 Real Unión de Tenerife

San Miguel

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Unión de Tenerife

Kike 73'

Andriu 7'

1/30/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 20Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel41%

×Draw31%

Real Unión de Tenerife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchReal Unión de Tenerife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.85

San Miguel

1.09

Real Unión de Tenerife

0.85

San Miguel creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.06

creates per match

0.59

1.12

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

San Miguel

1.06

Real Unión de Tenerife

0.59

allows per match

San Miguel

1.12

Real Unión de Tenerife

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

72%

San Miguel or Real Unión de Tenerife

69%

Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife

59%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

17%

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

66%

San Miguel 2+ goals

30%

San Miguel 3+ goals

10%

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals

57%

Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals

21%

Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

59%

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.06 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + San Miguel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Miguel scores more

41%

level

31%

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more

28%

San Miguel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'

90+7'

90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Miguel vs Real Unión de Tenerife

San Miguel and Real Unión de Tenerife drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 30, 2026.

Goals: Andriu (7'), Kike (73').

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

San Miguel vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Miguel vs Real Unión de Tenerife