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San Miguel vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Miguel
San Miguel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mensajero
Mensajero
3/29/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 28Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel41%
×Draw26%
Mensajero33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Miguel
1.45
Mensajero
1.27

San Miguel creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Miguel
1.53
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

San Miguel
1.47
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw
67%
San Miguel or Mensajero
74%
Draw or Mensajero
59%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+
20%
Mensajero wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals
77%
San Miguel 2+ goals
42%
San Miguel 3+ goals
18%
Mensajero 1+ goals
72%
Mensajero 2+ goals
36%
Mensajero 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)
56%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.53 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mensajero attack 1.08 + San Miguel defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Miguel scores more
41%
level
26%
Mensajero scores more
33%

San Miguel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Miguel 1–1 Mensajero

San Miguel and Mensajero drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.