San Miguel 0–1 Marino: Result & Stats

San Miguel

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marino

11/23/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel45%

×Draw25%

Marino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchMarino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.25

San Miguel

1.58

Marino

1.25

San Miguel creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 95 away

1.53

creates per match

1.03

1.47

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

San Miguel

1.53

Marino

1.03

allows per match

San Miguel

1.47

Marino

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Marino →

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

70%

San Miguel or Marino

75%

Draw or Marino

55%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

23%

Marino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

79%

San Miguel 2+ goals

47%

San Miguel 3+ goals

21%

Marino 1+ goals

71%

Marino 2+ goals

36%

Marino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

60%

Marino (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Marino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.53 + Marino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Marino attack 1.03 + San Miguel defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Miguel scores more

45%

level

25%

Marino scores more

30%

San Miguel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Miguel 0–1 Marino

Marino beat San Miguel 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

San Miguel vs Marino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Miguel 0–1 Marino