San Miguel 1–3 Buzanada: Result & Stats

San Miguel

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Buzanada

4/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel49%

×Draw25%

Buzanada26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchBuzanada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.07

San Miguel

1.59

Buzanada

1.07

San Miguel creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

1.53

creates per match

0.67

1.47

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

San Miguel

1.53

Buzanada

0.67

allows per match

San Miguel

1.47

Buzanada

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

Buzanada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Buzanada →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

74%

San Miguel or Buzanada

75%

Draw or Buzanada

51%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

26%

Buzanada wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

80%

San Miguel 2+ goals

47%

San Miguel 3+ goals

21%

Buzanada 1+ goals

66%

Buzanada 2+ goals

29%

Buzanada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

66%

Buzanada (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Buzanada away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.53 + Buzanada defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Buzanada attack 0.67 + San Miguel defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Miguel scores more

49%

level

25%

Buzanada scores more

26%

San Miguel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff