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San Miguel vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Miguel
San Miguel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
2/14/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel33%
×Draw30%
Atlético Paso38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Miguel
1.02
Atlético Paso
1.12

Atlético Paso creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

creates per match

San Miguel
1.06
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

San Miguel
1.12
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw
62%
San Miguel or Atlético Paso
70%
Draw or Atlético Paso
67%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals
64%
San Miguel 2+ goals
27%
San Miguel 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.06 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + San Miguel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Miguel scores more
33%
level
30%
Atlético Paso scores more
38%

Atlético Paso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Miguel 0 – 1 Atlético Paso

Atlético Paso beat San Miguel 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.