Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Miguel vs Arsenal Sarandi — Primera Nacional 2026

San Miguel
San Miguel
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
7/20/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Miguel52%
×Draw29%
Arsenal Sarandi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Miguel
1.32
Arsenal Sarandi
0.70

San Miguel creates 89% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

creates per match

San Miguel
1.22
Arsenal Sarandi
0.73

allows per match

San Miguel
0.67
Arsenal Sarandi
1.42

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par
Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw
80%
San Miguel or Arsenal Sarandi
71%
Draw or Arsenal Sarandi
48%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+
25%
Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals
73%
San Miguel 2+ goals
38%
San Miguel 3+ goals
15%
Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
50%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
16%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)
72%
Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.22 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Arsenal Sarandi attack 0.73 + San Miguel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Miguel scores more
52%
level
29%
Arsenal Sarandi scores more
20%

San Miguel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Miguel 3–0 Arsenal Sarandi

San Miguel beat Arsenal Sarandi 3-0 in Primera Nacional on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Los Polvorines, Provincia de Buenos Aires.