San Miguel 1–1 Argentino Quilmes: Result & Stats

San Miguel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Argentino Quilmes

11/25/2023

Primera B Metropolitana · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

San Miguel41%

×Draw31%

Argentino Quilmes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchArgentino Quilmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.86

San Miguel

1.10

Argentino Quilmes

0.86

San Miguel creates 28% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 123 away

0.85

creates per match

0.96

0.76

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

San Miguel

0.85

Argentino Quilmes

0.96

allows per match

San Miguel

0.76

Argentino Quilmes

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Argentino Quilmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

72%

San Miguel or Argentino Quilmes

69%

Draw or Argentino Quilmes

59%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

17%

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

67%

San Miguel 2+ goals

30%

San Miguel 3+ goals

10%

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals

58%

Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals

21%

Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

59%

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.76 · 89 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 0.85 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.96 + San Miguel defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Miguel scores more

41%

level

31%

Argentino Quilmes scores more

28%

San Miguel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff