San Miguel vs Almagro — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 46+ matches
San Miguel49%
Almagro21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Miguel creates 74% more chances
Season form · 46 home / 129 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under69
- Over31
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Miguel ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Miguel at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches
Almagro away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.28 · 129 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Miguel attack 1.22 + Almagro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25
Almagro attack 0.77 + San Miguel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
San Miguel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Almagro substitutes
Head to Head
Sarmiento Junin
Arsenal Sarandi
Nueva ChicagoAlmagro
Platense
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
Brown DE Adrogue
Ferro Carril Oeste
Atletico Mitre
Agropecuario
Villa Dalmine
Temperley
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
Atletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
Guillermo Brown
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Instituto Cordoba
Santamarina
Chacarita Juniors
Los AndesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Miguel host Almagro on Friday, 5 September 2025 at 18:30. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
San Miguel 1 – 1 Almagro
San Miguel and Almagro drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on September 5, 2025.
Goals: E. Dening (14'), A. Rodriguez (46').
The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Buenos Aires.