Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Marzano vs Cavese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

San Marzano
San Marzano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cavese
Cavese
12/20/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 17Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marzano31%
×Draw28%
Cavese41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marzano
1.03
Cavese
1.23

Cavese creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

San Marzano
1.41
Cavese
1.65

allows per match

San Marzano
0.82
Cavese
0.65

finishing

San Marzano+0.00on par
Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marzano ↓

Cavese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Marzano or draw
59%
San Marzano or Cavese
72%
Draw or Cavese
69%

Winning margin

San Marzano wins by 2+
12%
Cavese wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

San Marzano 1+ goals
64%
San Marzano 2+ goals
28%
San Marzano 3+ goals
9%
Cavese 1+ goals
71%
Cavese 2+ goals
35%
Cavese 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

San Marzano (draw refunded)
43%
Cavese (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marzano attack 1.41 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.03

Cavese attack 1.65 + San Marzano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Marzano scores more
31%
level
28%
Cavese scores more
41%

Cavese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: San Marzano 0–0 Cavese

San Marzano and Cavese drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania in Palma Campania.