San Martino Speme 1–5 Montebelluna: Result & Stats

San Martino Speme

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Montebelluna

2/16/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 18Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme27%

×Draw24%

Montebelluna49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martino SpemeExpected goals in this matchMontebelluna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.69

San Martino Speme

1.18

Montebelluna

1.69

Montebelluna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

0.88

creates per match

1.19

2.18

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

San Martino Speme

0.88

Montebelluna

1.19

allows per match

San Martino Speme

2.18

Montebelluna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Montebelluna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw

51%

San Martino Speme or Montebelluna

76%

Draw or Montebelluna

73%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+

11%

Montebelluna wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals

69%

San Martino Speme 2+ goals

33%

San Martino Speme 3+ goals

12%

Montebelluna 1+ goals

82%

Montebelluna 2+ goals

50%

Montebelluna 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)

35%

Montebelluna (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Martino Speme scores more

27%

level

24%

Montebelluna scores more

49%

Montebelluna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff