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San Martino Speme vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
FT
1 – 3
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
10/24/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme22%
×Draw23%
Dolomiti Bellunesi56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martino Speme
1.05
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.83

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

San Martino Speme
0.88
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

San Martino Speme
2.18
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw
44%
San Martino Speme or Dolomiti Bellunesi
77%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
78%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+
8%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals
65%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
28%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
9%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
84%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
54%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
28%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Martino Speme scores more
22%
level
23%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
56%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: San Martino Speme 1–3 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat San Martino Speme 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Campo San Martino Buon Albergo in San Martino Buon Albergo.