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San Martín vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Navarro
Navarro
3/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

San Martín46%
×Draw28%
Navarro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
1.35
Navarro
0.93

San Martín creates 45% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 63 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Navarro
1.63

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
74%
San Martín or Navarro
72%
Draw or Navarro
54%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
22%
Navarro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
74%
San Martín 2+ goals
39%
San Martín 3+ goals
15%
Navarro 1+ goals
61%
Navarro 2+ goals
24%
Navarro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
64%
Navarro (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Navarro attack 0.89 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Martín scores more
46%
level
28%
Navarro scores more
26%

San Martín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Martín vs Navarro

San Martín and Navarro drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Florán in San Martín del Rey Aurelio.