San Martín 3–0 Luarca: Result & Stats

San Martín

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Luarca

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Martín50%

×Draw27%

Luarca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MartínExpected goals in this matchLuarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.85

San Martín

1.40

Luarca

0.85

San Martín creates 65% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

1.07

creates per match

0.75

0.96

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

San Martín

1.07

Luarca

0.75

allows per match

San Martín

0.96

Luarca

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par

Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Luarca →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

San Martín or draw

77%

San Martín or Luarca

73%

Draw or Luarca

50%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+

24%

Luarca wins by 2+

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals

75%

San Martín 2+ goals

41%

San Martín 3+ goals

17%

Luarca 1+ goals

57%

Luarca 2+ goals

21%

Luarca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)

69%

Luarca (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.40

Luarca attack 0.75 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Martín scores more

50%

level

27%

Luarca scores more

23%

San Martín at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff