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San Martín vs Llanes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Llanes
Llanes
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

San Martín40%
×Draw28%
Llanes32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
1.22
Llanes
1.07

San Martín creates 14% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 94 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Llanes
1.19

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Llanes
1.36

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Llanes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Llanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
68%
San Martín or Llanes
72%
Draw or Llanes
60%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
17%
Llanes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
70%
San Martín 2+ goals
34%
San Martín 3+ goals
12%
Llanes 1+ goals
66%
Llanes 2+ goals
29%
Llanes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
55%
Llanes (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Llanes away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Llanes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Llanes attack 1.19 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Martín scores more
40%
level
28%
Llanes scores more
32%

San Martín at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: San Martín 1–0 Llanes

San Martín beat Llanes 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Florán in San Martín del Rey Aurelio.