San Martín 0–2 Ceares: Result & Stats

San Martín

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ceares

9/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

San Martín37%

×Draw29%

Ceares34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MartínExpected goals in this matchCeares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.08

San Martín

1.13

Ceares

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 93 away

1.07

creates per match

1.20

0.96

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

San Martín

1.07

Ceares

1.20

allows per match

San Martín

0.96

Ceares

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par

Ceares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Ceares →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Martín or draw

66%

San Martín or Ceares

71%

Draw or Ceares

63%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+

15%

Ceares wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals

68%

San Martín 2+ goals

31%

San Martín 3+ goals

11%

Ceares 1+ goals

66%

Ceares 2+ goals

29%

Ceares 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)

52%

Ceares (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Ceares away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Ceares defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ceares attack 1.20 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Martín scores more

37%

level

29%

Ceares scores more

34%

San Martín at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff