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San Martín vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
4/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

San Martín49%
×Draw27%
Avilés Stadium24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
1.41
Avilés Stadium
0.91

San Martín creates 55% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
76%
San Martín or Avilés Stadium
73%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
51%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
24%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
76%
San Martín 2+ goals
41%
San Martín 3+ goals
17%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
60%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
23%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
67%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Martín scores more
49%
level
27%
Avilés Stadium scores more
24%

San Martín at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: San Martín 0–1 Avilés Stadium

Avilés Stadium beat San Martín 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Florán in San Martín del Rey Aurelio.