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San Martin Tucuman vs Talleres Remedios — Primera Nacional 2026

San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
7/28/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 25Estadio La Ciudadela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

San Martin Tucuman55%
×Draw30%
Talleres Remedios15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin Tucuman
1.27
Talleres Remedios
0.51

San Martin Tucuman creates 149% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 36 away

creates per match

San Martin Tucuman
1.25
Talleres Remedios
0.44

allows per match

San Martin Tucuman
0.57
Talleres Remedios
1.28

finishing

San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par
Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Tucuman ↓

Talleres Remedios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

San Martin Tucuman or draw
85%
San Martin Tucuman or Talleres Remedios
70%
Draw or Talleres Remedios
45%

Winning margin

San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
26%
Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
72%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
36%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
14%
Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
40%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
9%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
79%
Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Tucuman at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.57 · 117 matches

Talleres Remedios away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Tucuman attack 1.25 + Talleres Remedios defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Talleres Remedios attack 0.44 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

San Martin Tucuman scores more
55%
level
30%
Talleres Remedios scores more
15%

San Martin Tucuman at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Talleres Remedios

San Martin Tucuman beat Talleres Remedios 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Ciudadela in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.