San Martin Tucuman 0–0 CA Estudiantes

San Martin Tucuman

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CA Estudiantes

8/1/2021

Primera Nacional · Round 19Estadio La Ciudadela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

San Martin Tucuman46%

×Draw32%

CA Estudiantes22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin TucumanExpected goals in this matchCA Estudiantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.69

San Martin Tucuman

1.13

CA Estudiantes

0.69

San Martin Tucuman creates 64% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 118 away

1.25

creates per match

0.81

0.57

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

San Martin Tucuman

1.25

CA Estudiantes

0.81

allows per match

San Martin Tucuman

0.57

CA Estudiantes

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Tucuman ↓

CA Estudiantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

San Martin Tucuman or draw

78%

San Martin Tucuman or CA Estudiantes

68%

Draw or CA Estudiantes

54%

Winning margin

San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+

20%

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals

68%

San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals

31%

San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals

11%

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

50%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

15%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)

67%

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Tucuman at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.57 · 117 matches

CA Estudiantes away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.01 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Tucuman attack 1.25 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

CA Estudiantes attack 0.81 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Martin Tucuman scores more

46%

level

32%

CA Estudiantes scores more

22%

San Martin Tucuman at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff