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San Martin Tucuman vs Banfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Banfield
Banfield
10/2/2018Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 7Estadio La Ciudadela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

San Martin Tucuman36%
×Draw30%
Banfield34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin Tucuman
1.09
Banfield
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 119 away

creates per match

San Martin Tucuman
1.00
Banfield
0.89

allows per match

San Martin Tucuman
1.20
Banfield
1.18

finishing

San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par
Banfield+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Tucuman ↓

Banfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Martin Tucuman or draw
66%
San Martin Tucuman or Banfield
70%
Draw or Banfield
64%

Winning margin

San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
15%
Banfield wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
66%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
30%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
10%
Banfield 1+ goals
65%
Banfield 2+ goals
28%
Banfield 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
52%
Banfield (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Tucuman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Tucuman attack 1.00 + Banfield defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Banfield attack 0.89 + San Martin Tucuman defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Martin Tucuman scores more
36%
level
30%
Banfield scores more
34%

San Martin Tucuman at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Martin Tucuman 1–1 Banfield

San Martin Tucuman and Banfield drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio La Ciudadela in San Miguel de Tucuman.