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San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro — Primera Nacional 2026

San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Almagro
Almagro
L. Arfaras 45'
A. Veliez 37'
G. Carabajal 20'
7/12/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 20Estadio La Ciudadela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

San Martin Tucuman51%
×Draw29%
Almagro20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin Tucuman
1.27
Almagro
0.67

San Martin Tucuman creates 90% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 129 away

creates per match

San Martin Tucuman
1.25
Almagro
0.77

allows per match

San Martin Tucuman
0.57
Almagro
1.28

finishing

San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Tucuman ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Martin Tucuman or draw
80%
San Martin Tucuman or Almagro
71%
Draw or Almagro
49%

Winning margin

San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
24%
Almagro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
72%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
36%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
14%
Almagro 1+ goals
49%
Almagro 2+ goals
15%
Almagro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
72%
Almagro (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Tucuman at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.57 · 117 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.28 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Tucuman attack 1.25 + Almagro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almagro attack 0.77 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Martin Tucuman scores more
51%
level
29%
Almagro scores more
20%

San Martin Tucuman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
G. Carabajal
22'
J. Marchioni
37'
A. Veliez↳ B. Cabrera
45'
L. Arfaras
46'
M. Cortave← J. Vitale
46'
M. Laba← J. Marchioni
46'
T. Dornell← E. Martinez
47'
L. Arfaras
58'
C. Salto← J. Bustos
60'
D. Diellos← L. Arfaras
72'
G. Rodriguez← A. Veliez
72'
G. Monroy← B. Cabrera
72'
P. Palacio← C. Salto
80'
L. Rodriguez← A. Graneros
88'
G. Carabajal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Martin Tucuman vs Almagro

San Martin Tucuman beat Almagro 3-0 in Primera Nacional on July 12, 2026.

Goals: G. Carabajal (20'), A. Veliez (37'), L. Arfaras (45').

The match was played at Estadio La Ciudadela in Tucuman.