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San Martin S.J. vs Quilmes — Primera Nacional 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Quilmes
Quilmes
6/4/2022Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 18Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

San Martin S.J.47%
×Draw29%
Quilmes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
1.29
Quilmes
0.84

San Martin S.J. creates 54% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 129 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
1.51
Quilmes
0.88

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.81
Quilmes
1.06

finishing

San Martin S.J.+0.00on par
Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
76%
San Martin S.J. or Quilmes
71%
Draw or Quilmes
53%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
22%
Quilmes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
72%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
37%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
14%
Quilmes 1+ goals
57%
Quilmes 2+ goals
21%
Quilmes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
66%
Quilmes (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.81 · 99 matches

Quilmes away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 1.51 + Quilmes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Quilmes attack 0.88 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
47%
level
29%
Quilmes scores more
24%

San Martin S.J. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Martin S.J. 2–1 Quilmes

San Martin S.J. beat Quilmes 2-1 in Primera Nacional on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.