San Martin Formosa vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Torneo Federal A 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
San Martin Formosa56%
Ciudad de Bolívar18%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Martin Formosa creates 113% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Martin Formosa ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Martin Formosa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches
Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Martin Formosa attack 2.00 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.47
Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.70 + San Martin Formosa defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.69
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
San Martin Formosa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "San Martin Formosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Douglas Haig
Sportivo Belgrano
Independiente De Chivilcoy
Sportivo Las Parejas
9 de Julio Rafaela
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Gimnasia Concepción
El Linqueño
Ben HurIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Martin Formosa host Ciudad de Bolívar on Sunday, 21 September 2025 at 18:30. The match is part of the Torneo Federal A 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: San Martin Formosa vs Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar beat San Martin Formosa 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 21, 2025.
Goals: A. Gonzalez (24').
The match was played at 17 De Octubre in Formosa.