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San Martín Burzaco vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

San Martín Burzaco
San Martín Burzaco
FT
0 – 0
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
10/8/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 13Estadio Francisco Boga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

San Martín Burzaco35%
×Draw28%
Dock Sud37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín Burzaco
1.12
Dock Sud
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 75 away

creates per match

San Martín Burzaco
1.11
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

San Martín Burzaco
1.13
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

San Martín Burzaco+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín Burzaco ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Martín Burzaco or draw
63%
San Martín Burzaco or Dock Sud
72%
Draw or Dock Sud
65%

Winning margin

San Martín Burzaco wins by 2+
14%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

San Martín Burzaco 1+ goals
67%
San Martín Burzaco 2+ goals
31%
San Martín Burzaco 3+ goals
10%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
69%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
33%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Martín Burzaco (draw refunded)
48%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín Burzaco at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín Burzaco attack 1.11 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + San Martín Burzaco defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Martín Burzaco scores more
35%
level
28%
Dock Sud scores more
37%

Dock Sud at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Martín Burzaco vs Dock Sud

San Martín Burzaco and Dock Sud drew 0-0 in Primera C on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Boga in Burzaco, Provincia de Buenos Aires.