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Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Martín Burzaco
San Martín Burzaco
11/9/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 20Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Dock Sud45%
×Draw29%
San Martín Burzaco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.28
San Martín Burzaco
0.90

Dock Sud creates 42% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.18
San Martín Burzaco
0.74

allows per match

Dock Sud
1.06
San Martín Burzaco
1.39

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
San Martín Burzaco+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

San Martín Burzaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
74%
Dock Sud or San Martín Burzaco
71%
Draw or San Martín Burzaco
55%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
21%
San Martín Burzaco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
72%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
37%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
14%
San Martín Burzaco 1+ goals
59%
San Martín Burzaco 2+ goals
23%
San Martín Burzaco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
63%
San Martín Burzaco (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

San Martín Burzaco away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + San Martín Burzaco defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

San Martín Burzaco attack 0.74 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dock Sud scores more
45%
level
29%
San Martín Burzaco scores more
26%

Dock Sud at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco

San Martín Burzaco beat Dock Sud 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Buenos Aires.