San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta — Primera B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 70+ matches
San Marcos de Arica44%
Recoleta28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Marcos de Arica creates 33% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 70 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Marcos de Arica ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.07 · 89 matches
Recoleta away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Marcos de Arica attack 1.37 + Recoleta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33
Recoleta attack 0.94 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
San Marcos de Arica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
CobreloaSan Marcos de Arica
Antofagasta
Santiago Wanderers
Deportes Copiapo
Magallanes
San Luis
Deportes Temuco
ConcepciónRecoleta
Union San Felipe
Curico Unido
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
Rangers de Talca
D. Puerto Montt
Union Espanola
Santiago Morning
Deportes IquiqueIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Marcos de Arica host Recoleta on Tuesday, 5 May 2026 at 00:30. The match is part of the Primera B 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta
San Marcos de Arica beat Recoleta 1-0 in Primera B on May 5, 2026.
Goals: G. Reyes (76').
The match was played at Estadio Carlos Dittborn in Arica.