San Marcos de Arica 1–2 Curico Unido

San Marcos de Arica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Curico Unido

2/25/2025

Primera B · Round 1Estadio Carlos Dittborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Marcos de Arica46%

×Draw27%

Curico Unido27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Marcos de AricaExpected goals in this matchCurico Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.01

San Marcos de Arica

1.41

Curico Unido

1.01

San Marcos de Arica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 38 away

1.36

creates per match

0.95

1.07

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

San Marcos de Arica

1.36

Curico Unido

0.95

allows per match

San Marcos de Arica

1.07

Curico Unido

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos de Arica ↓

Curico Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Marcos de Arica or draw

73%

San Marcos de Arica or Curico Unido

73%

Draw or Curico Unido

54%

Winning margin

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

22%

Curico Unido wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

76%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

41%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

17%

Curico Unido 1+ goals

64%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

27%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

63%

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 90 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.36 + Curico Unido defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Curico Unido attack 0.95 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Marcos de Arica scores more

46%

level

27%

Curico Unido scores more

27%

San Marcos de Arica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff