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San Marcial vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

San Marcial
San Marcial
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Varea
Varea
10/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marcial23%
×Draw24%
Varea53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcial
1.07
Varea
1.76

Varea creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

San Marcial
1.18
Varea
1.81

allows per match

San Marcial
1.71
Varea
0.97

finishing

San Marcial+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcial ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

San Marcial or draw
47%
San Marcial or Varea
76%
Draw or Varea
77%

Winning margin

San Marcial wins by 2+
9%
Varea wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

San Marcial 1+ goals
66%
San Marcial 2+ goals
29%
San Marcial 3+ goals
9%
Varea 1+ goals
83%
Varea 2+ goals
52%
Varea 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

San Marcial (draw refunded)
30%
Varea (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcial at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcial attack 1.18 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Varea attack 1.81 + San Marcial defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

San Marcial scores more
23%
level
24%
Varea scores more
53%

Varea at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: San Marcial 0–2 Varea

Varea beat San Marcial 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente in Lardero.