San Marcial 0–4 Calahorra: Result & Stats

San Marcial

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Calahorra

M. Arbeloa 78', 74'

M. Taha 48'

A. Sanchez 10'

4/12/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marcial22%

×Draw22%

Calahorra56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MarcialExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.94

San Marcial

1.12

Calahorra

1.94

Calahorra creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.18

creates per match

2.17

1.71

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

San Marcial

1.18

Calahorra

2.17

allows per match

San Marcial

1.71

Calahorra

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marcial+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcial ↓

Calahorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

San Marcial or draw

44%

San Marcial or Calahorra

78%

Draw or Calahorra

78%

Winning margin

San Marcial wins by 2+

8%

Calahorra wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

San Marcial 1+ goals

67%

San Marcial 2+ goals

31%

San Marcial 3+ goals

10%

Calahorra 1+ goals

86%

Calahorra 2+ goals

58%

Calahorra 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

San Marcial (draw refunded)

28%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcial at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Calahorra away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcial attack 1.18 + Calahorra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Calahorra attack 2.17 + San Marcial defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Marcial scores more

22%

level

22%

Calahorra scores more

56%

Calahorra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

21'

48'

74'

78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff