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San Marcial vs Anguiano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

San Marcial
San Marcial
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Anguiano
Anguiano
5/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marcial25%
×Draw24%
Anguiano51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcial
1.09
Anguiano
1.69

Anguiano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

creates per match

San Marcial
1.18
Anguiano
1.66

allows per match

San Marcial
1.71
Anguiano
1.01

finishing

San Marcial+0.00on par
Anguiano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcial ↓

Anguiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

San Marcial or draw
49%
San Marcial or Anguiano
76%
Draw or Anguiano
75%

Winning margin

San Marcial wins by 2+
9%
Anguiano wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

San Marcial 1+ goals
66%
San Marcial 2+ goals
30%
San Marcial 3+ goals
10%
Anguiano 1+ goals
82%
Anguiano 2+ goals
50%
Anguiano 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

San Marcial (draw refunded)
32%
Anguiano (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcial at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Anguiano away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.01 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcial attack 1.18 + Anguiano defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Anguiano attack 1.66 + San Marcial defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Marcial scores more
25%
level
24%
Anguiano scores more
51%

Anguiano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Anguiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: San Marcial 0–2 Anguiano

Anguiano beat San Marcial 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente in Lardero.