San Marcial 4–3 Agoncillo: Result & Stats

San Marcial

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Agoncillo

4/26/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 32Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marcial34%

×Draw26%

Agoncillo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MarcialExpected goals in this matchAgoncillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.44

San Marcial

1.30

Agoncillo

1.44

Agoncillo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

1.18

creates per match

1.18

1.71

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

San Marcial

1.18

Agoncillo

1.18

allows per match

San Marcial

1.71

Agoncillo

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marcial+0.00on par

Agoncillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcial ↓

Agoncillo →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

San Marcial or draw

60%

San Marcial or Agoncillo

74%

Draw or Agoncillo

66%

Winning margin

San Marcial wins by 2+

15%

Agoncillo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

San Marcial 1+ goals

73%

San Marcial 2+ goals

37%

San Marcial 3+ goals

14%

Agoncillo 1+ goals

76%

Agoncillo 2+ goals

42%

Agoncillo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

San Marcial (draw refunded)

46%

Agoncillo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Marcial at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Agoncillo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Marcial attack 1.18 + Agoncillo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Agoncillo attack 1.18 + San Marcial defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Marcial scores more

34%

level

26%

Agoncillo scores more

40%

Agoncillo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Agoncillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Marcial vs Agoncillo

San Marcial beat Agoncillo 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente in Lardero.

San Marcial vs Agoncillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Marcial vs Agoncillo