Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Luis vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

San Luis
San Luis
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Barnechea
Barnechea
8/19/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 22Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

San Luis42%
×Draw27%
Barnechea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Luis
1.33
Barnechea
1.11

San Luis creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 95 away

creates per match

San Luis
1.15
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

San Luis
1.13
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

San Luis+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luis ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Luis or draw
69%
San Luis or Barnechea
73%
Draw or Barnechea
58%

Winning margin

San Luis wins by 2+
19%
Barnechea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Luis 1+ goals
74%
San Luis 2+ goals
38%
San Luis 3+ goals
15%
Barnechea 1+ goals
67%
Barnechea 2+ goals
30%
Barnechea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Luis (draw refunded)
57%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luis at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luis attack 1.15 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Barnechea attack 1.09 + San Luis defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Luis scores more
42%
level
27%
Barnechea scores more
31%

San Luis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: San Luis 0–6 Barnechea

Barnechea beat San Luis 6-0 in Primera B on August 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.