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San Luigi vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Luigi
San Luigi
FT
0 – 7
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
11/30/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 16Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

San Luigi22%
×Draw21%
Union Feltre57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Luigi
1.22
Union Feltre
2.08

Union Feltre creates 70% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

San Luigi
1.13
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

San Luigi
2.16
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

San Luigi+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luigi ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

San Luigi or draw
43%
San Luigi or Union Feltre
79%
Draw or Union Feltre
78%

Winning margin

San Luigi wins by 2+
9%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

San Luigi 1+ goals
70%
San Luigi 2+ goals
34%
San Luigi 3+ goals
12%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
87%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
61%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

San Luigi (draw refunded)
28%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luigi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luigi attack 1.13 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + San Luigi defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

San Luigi scores more
22%
level
21%
Union Feltre scores more
57%

Union Feltre at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Luigi vs Union Feltre

Union Feltre beat San Luigi 7-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste).