San Luigi 3–3 Cartigliano: Result & Stats

San Luigi

FT

3 – 3

Cartigliano

T. Bertoni 90' (pen)

M. Ianezic 86'

A. Carlevaris 48'

L. Mattioli 83', 79', 36'

2/9/2020

Serie D - Girone C · Round 26Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

San Luigi27%

×Draw23%

Cartigliano50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LuigiExpected goals in this matchCartigliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.79

San Luigi

1.25

Cartigliano

1.79

Cartigliano creates 43% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

1.13

creates per match

1.43

2.16

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

San Luigi

1.13

Cartigliano

1.43

allows per match

San Luigi

2.16

Cartigliano

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Luigi+0.00on par

Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luigi ↓

Cartigliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

San Luigi or draw

50%

San Luigi or Cartigliano

77%

Draw or Cartigliano

73%

Winning margin

San Luigi wins by 2+

11%

Cartigliano wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

San Luigi 1+ goals

71%

San Luigi 2+ goals

36%

San Luigi 3+ goals

13%

Cartigliano 1+ goals

83%

Cartigliano 2+ goals

53%

Cartigliano 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

San Luigi (draw refunded)

35%

Cartigliano (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luigi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luigi attack 1.13 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + San Luigi defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Luigi scores more

27%

level

23%

Cartigliano scores more

50%

Cartigliano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

L. Mattioli

48'

A. Carlevaris

79'

L. Mattioli

83'

L. Mattioli

86'

M. Ianezic

90'

T. BertoniPenalty

90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff